A recent predictive modeling study by de Vries et al. (2025) examined how different conceptualizations of person–environment (PE) fit predict program-specific persistence among first-year undergraduates. Data were collected from 1305 first-year students across five non-selective bachelor’s programs at a large research-intensive university (Biomedical Sciences, Business Administration, Health & Life Sciences, Law, and Movement Sciences), with at least 200 students per programme.
Using logistic regression with LASSO regularization and 10-fold cross-validation, the authors compared five clusters of predictors: interest fit, ability fit, prior achievement/ personality/ motivation, choice process, and background characteristics. Both profile correlations and polynomial regression approaches were applied to operationalize interest fit. High school exam grades and self-reported abilities captured ability fit.
Results showed that models predicted persistence with moderate accuracy: 67–77% in training samples and 50–75% in testing samples. Models performed better in correctly classifying persisters than non-persisters. Interest fit was the most consistent predictor, with polynomial regression-based measures retained in four of the five disciplinary models (small-to-moderate effect sizes). Profile correlation indices also contributed in some programs, but less strongly. Ability fit through subject-specific high school grades (e.g., biology for Biomedical Sciences, mathematics for Business Administration) emerged as another robust predictor. In contrast, traditional indicators such as HSGPA, personality traits, and motivational measures had limited additional value once interest and subject-specific grades were included. Choice process variables (e.g., depth of exploration) and background characteristics showed only marginal contributions.
The study highlights the importance of discipline-specific interests and ability matches in predicting first-year persistence. While the models are more effective at forecasting persistence than dropout, the findings stress the need for program-specific approaches to student success and suggest that admissions and advising practices should focus more on interest and subject fit rather than broad indicators like GPA or personality.
Source (Open Access): de Vries, N., Merkle, B., Meeter, M., Janke, S., Bakker, T. C., & Huizinga, M. (2025). Predicting program-specific first-year persistence in higher education using a person-environment fit perspective. European Journal of Higher Education, 1-22.